Profit.bg has launched the initiative „Bulgaria in 2009". In a series of articles we will present to you the opinions of experts in various fields of the economy as regards to the development of the sector they operate in. This is the first article of the series:

"Bulgaria in 2009 - credit market"

The development of the credit market in Bulgaria in 2009 will be marked by the global economic crisis. Mortgage lending will shrink. The clients opting for this type of financing the purchase of a property will be led by the belief that the higher cost of the loan, that they will pay, will be offset by the qualities of the property and the solution of their urgent housing problem.

Some of the clients that will resort to a mortgage loan will opt for a small percentage of the value of the property - between 20 and 40%. These are clients whose savings cover most of the value of the home, but they are short of a small sum plus renovation and furnishing costs.

I expect the average value of the mortgage and consumer loans to decline to 28 000 euros and 6 000 leva, respectively, as at the end of the year.

The banks will fund around 60% of the value of the properties and the repayment period for the loans will be between 15 and 25 years. Guarantors and high income will more often be among the requirements to obtain a consumer loan.

This will make clients turn to consumer loans only for necessities, while the purchases of luxurious goods with a loan will be reduced to a minimum. Generally the clients will feel less confident in their abilities to service their loans, which will make the more cautious and prudent

Tihomir Toshev - executive director, CreditCenter